The potential for severe weather is back for Thursday and Friday, with Friday showing a greater chance of active storms. Thursday’s threat still depends on whether the CAP breaks. On Friday, though, the CAP appears less likely to prevent storm development.
Latest weather models suggest we might see a few weak spots in the CAP develop later Thursday evening. These areas are expected to be mainly east of I-55, including Decatur, Shelbyville, Effingham, Champaign, and Mattoon.
If storms do form on Thursday, the main threats would include isolated tornadoes, damaging winds between 60 and 70 MPH, and hail as large as 2 inches—about the size of an egg. The highest risk for severe storms is in communities and counties located east of I-55.
The CAP is a layer of warm air higher up in the atmosphere that acts as a lid, preventing storms from forming. For storms to develop, air needs to rise and cool. If the upper air is too warm, storm clouds can’t grow. Think of it like a shaken bottle of soda—if the cap stays on, everything is contained. But once the cap comes off, the pressure releases all at once.
On Friday, the CAP is expected to be weaker, leading to a more active weather pattern. Parts of Central Illinois have been upgraded to Enhanced and Moderate Risk levels—3 and 4 out of 5—due to the increasing threat.
Storms are likely to develop by mid-afternoon Friday, around 3 p.m., and could last through the early evening. These storms are expected to move quickly from west to east and may exit the region by 6 or 7 p.m.
Friday’s storms could be more intense, with wind gusts exceeding 70 MPH and hail sizes ranging from 2 to 2.5 inches—larger than an egg. Warm, humid air will fuel these storms and increase their severity.
Residents in affected areas should remain weather-aware and monitor updates throughout the day.
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Vikas Lalit is an experienced content writer at OTE News, covering business, economy, and international affairs. With a degree in Journalism, he combines analytical thinking with engaging storytelling to deliver well-researched updates. Vikas is passionate about uncovering underreported stories that impact readers.
Outside of work, he enjoys playing chess, following cricket, and writing short stories. His commitment to integrity and in-depth analysis strengthens OTE News’ mission of providing trustworthy journalism.