Memorial Day marks the unofficial start of summer — kids are out of school, temps are rising, and many plan road trips, pool days, or backyard BBQs.

But don’t be fooled by the summer vibes. We’re still in the thick of severe weather season, and forecast models show a strong chance of thunderstorms — some possibly severe — across much of Texas as the holiday weekend approaches. The highest risk comes Sunday into Monday. Here’s what to expect day by day:

Memorial Day Weekend Forecast

Friday:

If you kick off your long weekend early, good news — rain chances are very low statewide. Isolated showers or weak storms aren’t impossible but are unlikely, with most places seeing less than a 10% chance of rain. West Texas has a slightly higher chance at 20%.

Temperatures will be warm but mostly below 100 degrees. Central and South Texas will reach the 90s, while North Texas should stay in the upper 80s.

Saturday:

Saturday stays mostly quiet, making it a good day for travel or outdoor plans. Temperatures climb higher, hitting the upper 90s in Central and South Texas, with some spots possibly reaching 100 degrees.

Humidity will rise, pushing heat indexes near or above 100 degrees for much of the state. Stay hydrated and take breaks from the sun if you’re outside.

Sunday:

Storm chances pick up Sunday, especially in North Texas. The Dallas-Fort Worth area faces about a 50% chance of storms. Further south, San Antonio has a 20-30% chance of evening storms.

While a widespread severe weather outbreak isn’t expected, unstable, moisture-rich air could produce some storms with large hail and damaging winds.

Monday (Memorial Day):

Storm chances increase for Central and South Texas as a cold front moves through. Most of the day will likely stay dry, but afternoon and evening storms may bring brief heavy rain and large hail. San Antonio’s rain chances rise to around 50%.

The cold front will help cool things off, with highs dropping into the upper 80s to low 90s in Central and South Texas, and highs in the 70s across much of North Texas.

This forecast could shift as we get closer to the weekend. For daily updates, visit expressnews.com/weather throughout Memorial Day weekend.

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